Yes, I’m aware that the match-up between Junior Dos Santos and Brock Lesnar has just been set, but as the axiom goes…”styles make fights” and this is a really bad style for Dos Santos. So in my mind we’re almost certainly headed for the rematch between Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar. In not so earth shattering logic I’ll explain why…

No I don’t have a crush on Brock

My reasoning has no bias to it, I promise. I’m not a big Lesnar fan, and I actually hated him before his most recent countdown series that made him slightly more endearing. He’s a prick, but sometimes is funny and everyone has to admire the work ethic. Dos Santos, who’s beautifully coordinated on his feet and has a style much more appealing to the senses (being a boxer of course I would think this), is one of my favorite heavyweights. Clearly I’d prefer a Dos Santos win, but that won’t be happening even though early odds have him at a -155 favorite over Brock at +125.

Normally I’m an unbelievably shitty picker of fights, but there have been exceptions.

Why you should bet your mortgage on my prediction (jk don’t do that)

I picked Frankie over BJ because I knew BJ was going to try and do what he always does…box—except I knew Frankie to be the better boxer. Read my Boxing Bible for MMA I go on and on about Frankie.

I picked Machida over Evans when interviewed Jon Anik on my MMA in the Morning Podcast. I told Jon it wasn’t even going to be close…AND it wasn’t.

The only difference between those fights and all the other fight picks that I miss is fairly simple, I just felt strongly—strong enough to be arrogant about it :). Hey, if you can’t talk shit to people about it thennn how strongly can you really feel? Just sayin’.

Don’t think that I’m down on Junior though. I really liked his chances against Cain. That was a great match up for him. Junior is a phenomenal boxer and I think the odds were pretty good that Cain would have stood with him a fair amount of the fight (unless Cain adjusted his gameplan to account for Junior’s stand up—definitely possible). You put those two guys in a stand up war? To me it’s 50/50 who’s takin home the belt.

With all that being said, I don’t think anyone in their right mind is going to say that Lesnar’s stand up is anywhere close to Junior’s. And based on Lesnar’s last two fights, being totally outclassed on his feet, I don’t think he’s that dumb either.

It’s for that very reason that Brock wins this fight.

His only sane option is to put Junior on his back. Cain had the wrestling pedigree to withstand that…Junior, absolutely does not.

Game, set, match.

But hey, it’s still going to be a fantastic season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Brock a coach? Watch out!

Tell me your thoughts in the comments below and win a UFC 9 DVD

To encourage comments on this post I’m giving away a UFC 9 DVD to the best comment (a $19.95 value for free). It could be funny, it could be informative, it could be contrary to my prediction, it could agree with me, or it could insult me…whatever you want.

I’m looking forward to what you guys have to say.

Oh and UFC 9 fights include:
  • Mark Hall vs Koji Kitao
  • Don Frye vs Amaury Bitetti
  • Gary Goodridge vs Mark Schultz
  • Ken Shamrock vs Dan Severn